China-Thailand Asset Management: Why Investors’ Risk Appetite Rise in Epidemic
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Li Xunlei Column | The epidemic will gradually rise in investor risk: the first day after the opening of the stock market after the Chinese New Year of Li Xunlei of Zhongtai Securities, the stock index suffered a large decline due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, followed by consecutive daysThe rebound, especially the GEM index also hit a new high since 2017
, significantly stronger than the typical big blue chip index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 or Shanghai Stock Exchange 50.
The estimated level of the GEM is significantly higher than that of the main board-for a long time in the past, the CSI 300 Index has trended stronger than the GEM. Therefore, my understanding is that investor risk has increased since that time.
Whether the risk is expected to rise depends on the changes in the investor’s 南宁桑拿 on-site financing balance.
In April last year, after the Wonder All A Index hit a new record high, the financing balance also dropped. At present, the Wonder All A Index is still about 6 lower than the highest point in 2019.
6%, but the financing balance increased by more than 60 billion yuan in 2019.
Data source of the changes in the financing surplus of the A-share market: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute If this is not enough to cause a certain increase in risk attention, we can also find evidence of the convincing effect.
The picture below was provided by a friend of mine.
He believes that, to a certain extent, the estimated level of equity is actually high or low. The median price-earnings ratio is relatively objective, but the problem is that companies with good and bad are treated equally; the 杭州夜网论坛 problem of calculating the price-earnings ratio by market value is that banks and other sectors are blinded.The initial stock estimate level was “averaged”; using the daily real gold and silver transaction value as a weight, we found that it can better describe the true level of market estimates and describe the market’s style orientation.
Three types of city earnings ratios for A shares: market value increase (total market value), price-earnings ratio, median price-earnings ratio, and trading price-earnings ratio. Data sources: WIND, Wang Xiaodong.The trading amount on the trading day is weighted.
Under normal circumstances, the trading P / E ratio will exceed the market value P / E ratio and the median P / E ratio. Of course, this picture is a bit distorted because it is still based on the three consecutive quarterly TTM deductions. Due to the large financial provision in the fourth quarter of 2018Due to the rolling profit growth trend from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the third quarter of 2019, the PE ratio is relatively high; if the PE value based on the 2019 four seasons report may be more recognized by the market.
However, the current trading price-earnings ratio is more than 110 times (after deduction), far more than 54 times the median city earnings ratio and 18 times the market value, increasing the price-earnings ratio, indicating that the current trading hotspots are mostly in the category of occurrence. After the epidemic, such hypeSignificant convergence also occurred.
From the perspective of the market share of 50% of the small market capitalization stocks ranked by market value in the post-A share market, A shares still account for more than 20%, which is significantly more than several other markets. Other markets are below 5%, indicating that A sharesThe speculative characteristics of the market are still obvious, but the downward trend after 2016 is also obvious.
The source of the proportion of the 50% small market capitalization stock turnover in the global mainstream market: Bloomberg, WIND, and China-Thailand Securities Research Institute ‘s increased risk appetite can be explained from the following four aspects: First, from the above figure, we can findRisk appetite is a long-term characteristic of domestic stock markets. Therefore, it is difficult to find causality from short-term changes.
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of the two exchanges. The 30-year period is not short, but even the rankings of stock markets such as South Korea and India, which are also emerging markets, are not long.
Therefore, we need to be inclusive on the scale of the A-share market, and do not expect the value investment era to come overnight.
In fact, for the explanation of the economic pattern in which the investor ‘s risk appetite went up when the previous dividend was in a downward cycle and encountered a major epidemic that was not encountered in ten years, I think it has something to do with the relaxation of monetary policy.
Last year, major global economies cut interest rates, indicating the downward pressure on the economy, as well as domestically. Investors generally expect that under the epidemic, the probability of monetary policy entering the interest rate reduction cycle fluctuates, capital market liquidity will be more abundant, and capital-driven features are relativelyObviously, it brings more opportunities to conventional stocks.
In contrast, China’s economy and finance are deleveraging in 2017, and the liquidity of the capital market is not sufficient. Growth is mainly driven by the performance of blue chip stocks.
Third, from the perspective of style switching, after two years of estimated repairs of big blue chips, it is estimated that there is little room for improvement.
For speculators, they definitely want higher returns. Therefore, the GEM, which represents the new economy or the conversion of old and new kinetic energy, has become the first choice.
Fourth, when the epidemic situation continues, resumption of labor is severely intensified, and industrial investment encounters many difficulties, the liquidity generated by loose monetary policy will actually have limited support for the real economy, and it will also be layered.
Therefore, some liquidity will be idling in the financial system, which will bring “liquidity” to the stock market.
Increasing risk appetite is beneficial to increasing the proportion of direct financing, especially in the new and old kinetic energy conversion stage. The development of emerging industries depends more on direct financing.
Of course, whether the market can continue to be active in the future depends on changes in the fundamentals of the Chinese economy.
In general, in the next ten years, the Chinese economy will always be in the process of structural adjustment, the concentration of the industry will continue to increase, and the positive phenomenon will become more and more obvious.
Investment opportunities in the stock market are also mainly reflected in the structure, and the phenomenon of general ups and downs will become increasingly rare.
For example, the U.S. stock market has experienced a bull market for ten years. In the ten-year period (2009-2019), the average increase in U.S. stocks accounted for only 16%, and in the Nasdaq market, the stocks that outperformed the average increase only7
42%, the winner takes all, the characteristics of survival of the fittest are very obvious.
It is hard to see that it is difficult to find that the rise in the risk appetite of securities investors has been very obvious since February 2019, and has nothing to do with the epidemic.
In this outbreak, investor risk appetite has not decreased.
Therefore, we do not need to pay too much attention to the impact of the epidemic on the stock market.
For example, during the SARS period in 2003, although the stock market changes have increased, the expected index has increased compared with before and after the SARS epidemic.
Trend of A-shares during the SARS epidemic in 2003 Source: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research may raise questions: During the SARS period, the Chinese economy was in an upward cycle, and the outbreak exceeded the SARS scale, and the Chinese economy alsoIn the down cycle.
These are facts, and we cannot make simple analogies.
For example, the overall estimated level of A shares during the SARS period is not the same as it is now. At that time, the overall estimate was relatively high and the estimated structure was distorted.
However, my judgment is that both the atypical pneumonia and the epidemic are short-lived, and the economy is affected by the epidemic, ranging from half a year to as many as one year, and will not change the development trend and structural change trend of China’s economy.
The market’s investment opportunities, restructuring comes from trending or structural, and restructuring comes from estimated changes when risk substitution changes.