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Zhibang Home (603801): Excellent underestimation leading bullish on the big + closet!

The company actively took measures to respond to this round of epidemic situation: (1) Increased online marketing efforts. On January 25th, the log-on Tmall / Jingdong flagship store launched the “opening door” campaign to provide value to consumers. In early February, it carried out online live delivery andPre-heating the 315 “Men’s Kitchen Festival” event and launching a customized package of “19,700 yuan ordering kitchen cabinets to send wardrobes”, which has already achieved good results in some cities; (2) offline channels strengthened dealer support, the company started on February 6The two major franchisees, “Reduction” and “Exemption”, helped expand the factory price from February to April by 10%, and gradually replaced the online remittance unit fee, and the company was responsible for investing about 20 online live broadcast costs with the dealer.Overcoming difficulties.

The fluctuating performance brought about by the epidemic in the short term, the home must be eliminated, and the internal impact is limited.

The short-term impact of this round of epidemic on home retail that focuses on offline experience has affected the company’s performance in 20Q1 and Q2 to a certain extent.

However, we believe that furniture consumption is relatively rigid, and demand is only lagging and will not disappear. It is expected that after the epidemic, the suppressed demand in the epidemic period will be gradually filled, and the company may cause the scale to be actually small.

In the engineering business, the impact is expected to be more limited due to the relatively more stable demand from real estate developers.

In addition, this round of epidemic is expected to further accelerate the concentration of industry sharing to the leading.

Bulk channels optimize customer structure and continue to deliver on existing growth.

The company’s kitchen cabinet business started early. In July 18, it took a 47% share in the Australian IJF (55 years of kitchen cabinet manufacturing and years of real estate business cooperation experience) to allocate and nurture its own bulk business. Therefore, the company maintains a leading operating advantage on the bulk track.

In 18-19, the company optimized the customer structure, reduced the proportion of Evergrande’s business, and actively introduced other real estate customers with better payment terms / prices, such as Zhongnan and Greenland. They have signed cooperation agreements with more than 20 spindle real estate developers.Profitability has improved, and accounts receivable / cash flow risks are better controlled.

We estimate that the bulk business of the company in 19Q1-Q3 will increase by 35-40% (earlier than 19H1 + 24%), and account for 15-20% of total revenue. It is expected to achieve a 50% increase with the volume of new and old customers in 20 years.

Retailers strengthened dealer support, and multiple categories of wardrobes and wooden doors developed smoothly.

In terms of retail: (1) The company’s wardrobe business is expanding 杭州桑拿 at a high speed and actively developing wooden doors. In 19Q1-Q3, 150+ new stores were opened (almost a total of 900). Revenue is expected to increase by 70-80%, accounting for 20-25%. 20The closet is still the focus of development, and it is expected to achieve a 50% growth; (2) Due to the impact of refined decoration and decentralized traffic on the retail side of the kitchen cabinet, it is expected to face the pressure of small changes in 19 years, and the company will expand its dealer support in 20 years andActively explore new retail channels such as online live broadcast, and strive to pick up the kitchen cabinet business; (3) The company launched the new IK brand in 19 years to enter the assembly business, and there are also highlights in its subsequent development.

The completion of repairs guarantees the growth of orders, staff incentives are in place, and 南宁桑拿 the company is optimistic as a small and excellent long-distance runner.

Looking forward to 20-21 years, the continued repair of completed areas (we estimate 20 years + 9%) is expected to drive the improvement of the home market environment and guarantee the company’s order growth.

In terms of management, the company launched a 20-year extended stock incentive plan and actually awarded 474 middle managers.

90,000 shares (accounting for 2 total shares).

13%, grant price 9.

65 yuan), the unlocking condition is that the revenue / net profit will increase by no less than 24% / 40% on the 18-year base, which will help stimulate team vitality.

We believe that the company has outstanding advantages in major channels, new categories of wardrobes and wooden doors continue to increase, staff incentives are in place, and currently it is still oversold, combining growth and expected key recommendations!

Earnings forecast and investment grade: We expect the company to achieve revenue of 28% in 19-21.

04/33.

76/41.

02 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.

2% / 20.

4% / 21.

5%.

Net profit attributable to mother 3.

20/3.

78/4.

6.5 billion, an increase of 17 in ten years.

3% / 18.

1% / 22.

8%.

The current market value corresponds to 14 PE in 19-21.

51X / 12.

28 times / 10.

00X, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: the duration of the epidemic is prolonged, and industry competition is intensifying