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Goldwind Science and Technology (002202): Profitable industry boom is now turning profit leader
Events: 1. The company released its third quarter report for 2019.The company achieved operating income of 247 in the first three quarters of 2019.350,000 yuan, an increase of 38 in ten years.84%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.91 trillion, down 34 a year.24%; deducted non-net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company.29 ppm, a decrease of 37 per year.91%. Basic income is 0.3713 yuan / share, down 40 previously.05%. 2. Among them, the company achieved operating income of 90 in the third quarter of 2019.20,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.65%, down 12 from the previous month.92%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.06 billion, down 54 every year.30%, down 57.49%. Opinion: The industry boom has driven the rapid growth of wind turbine sales, and Goldwind has benefited from the industry’s large-scale trend.In the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s fan sales were 5.25GW, accounting for 89% of expected sales in 2018, driving the company’s revenue in the first three quarters of 247.350,000 yuan, an increase of 38 in ten years.84%.With the fourth quarter entering the peak season of installation, the company’s continuous installed scale is expected to continue to grow rapidly.Looking at the sales structure of wind turbine products, the trend of large-scale expansion is obvious.其中主流2MW 机型销量占比由Q1\Q2 单季度的73%和67%降至Q3 的59%,2.The combined proportion of 5MW and 3MW increased from 22% and 31% in Q1 / Q2 single quarter to 37%.Judging from the pending orders and winning bids without blending, 2.The proportion of orders for 5MW and above models increased from 38% and 39% in 2018 to 65% and 90% in the third quarter of 2019, respectively, and the trend of large-scale will further improve the company’s profitability. The company is optimistic about the upward trend of the company’s earnings in the next few quarters: wind power installation continues and bidding prices bottom out.In the first three quarters of 2019, the country’s new wind power installed capacity13.08GW, a year-on-year increase of 47%, the wind power installation effect brought about by changes in compensation policies is obvious.Judging from the tender situation, the first three quarters of 2019, the domestic public tender for wind power equipment reached 49.9GW, an annual increase of 109%, of which 17 were tendered in the third quarter.6GW, with an annual increase of 144% and a 1% increase from the previous month. The bidding data verification and installation will likely continue until 2020. The scale of wind power installed capacity will continue to increase. Terminating the third quarter, the company’s pending orders and winning unused orders will be 15 respectively.6GW and 7.2GW, an increase of 20 per year.2% and 37.0%.Stimulated by strong demand, the bidding price of wind turbines continued to bottom out in 2019, until September 2019,2.The average bid price of 5MW-class units was 3898 yuan / KW, which was only a 17% increase in low prices in August last year. The 3MW quarter also rose 8%.Judging from the situation we tracked, the execution of low-price orders has gradually completed, and the profitability of wind turbines has improved in the future. From the perspective of gross profit margin, the company’s single-quarter gross 深圳桑拿网 profit margin in the third quarter of 2019 was 19.12%, an increase of 1 from the previous quarter.17ppt; the trend of improving profitability is expected to continue. Consumption of wind power is expected to promote the growth of self-operated wind farms and provide a better cash flow foundation in the future.In the first three quarters of 2019, the country’s abandonment of wind power decreased by 9.4 billion kWh to 12.8 billion kWh, and the average abandonment rate decreased by 3.5ppt to 4.2%, the wind power consumption ratio was 5 from the same period last year.2% increased to 5.4%, the national wind power consumption continued to improve.As of the third quarter of 2019, the company’s internal grid-connected self-operated wind-driven equity installed capacity was 4,596MW, an increase of more than 10%, and the power generation 杭州桑拿网 capacity was 5,923GWh, an increase of 2%, providing the company with a sufficiently stable cash flow scale. The development of overseas markets has achieved results and will provide effective increments.The company continues to promote the development of overseas markets. As of September 2019, the company has overseas orders in hand1.21GW, an annual increase of 62.5%, mainly distributed in Canada, Philippines, Pakistan, South Africa, Australia and other countries.The third-quarter order supplemented 238.8MW, mainly from new orders in North and South America.The company currently has equity capacity for overseas projects under construction and development1.54GW, mainly concentrated in Argentina and Australia. As the company’s overseas market gradually expands, it will better simplify the impact of domestic policy changes on wind turbine demand. Earnings forecast and rating: We expect the company to achieve revenue of 407 in 2019-2021.32, 503.70 and 565.27 ppm, an increase of 41 in ten years.77%, 23.66% and 12.23%; net profit attributable to mother 30.04, 41.92 and 50.75 ppm, a ten-year increase of -6.61%, 39.55% and 21.07%, the diluted CO2 income is 0.71, 0.99 and 1.20 yuan / share, calculated based on the closing price of October 25, 2019, corresponding to the PE of 2019-2021 is 17x, 13x and 10x.The domestic wind power installation in 2019-2020 is clear, and the company, as the leader of the wind turbine, tries to benefit first.At the same time, the steady rise of the bidding price of wind turbines will effectively improve the company’s profitability. Based on this, the company’s “Buy” rating is maintained. Risk factors: risks related to wind power industry related policy changes; raw material price risks; wind power consumption is less than expected risks; overseas market development is less than expected risks; increased competition in the industry.