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Xinao shares (600803): 2018 profit growth of methanol expands SANTOS performance greatly increases gas upstream layout

Event: On March 12, the company released its 2018 annual report and realized net profit attributable to mothers in 201813.

200 million, an increase of 109% in ten years.

That is, the net profit in the single quarter of 2018Q2.

900 million, in the range of pre-increasing performance, in line with market expectations.

Opinion: The profit of methanol has expanded in 2018, and the price will be supplemented by volume in 2019.

In 2018, the volume and price of methanol increased, and profits increased: the company’s self-produced methanol achieved a price of 2001 yuan / ton, each time +66 yuan / ton, and the sales of new energy energy methanol 94 replaced, each 北京夜网 time +16 targets.

In 2018, New Energy Energy (75% equity) achieved net profit3.

200 million, +0 a year.

500 million; Xinneng Phoenix (40% equity) achieved net profit4.

0 billion, ten years +2.

700 million.

Daqi Phase II 60 California methanol production expansion has been successfully put into operation, contributing sales in 20188.

In May, 2019 will be profitable.

In the first quarter of 2019, the price of methanol was sluggish. We expect the price of methanol to be -450 yuan per ton. The profit per ton of methanol is expected to be reduced, but the increase in production capacity has replaced the price adjustment.

Santos reduced costs and increased efficiency, and its performance has greatly increased.

The company holds Santos10, an Australian listed company.

07% equity, contributed profit in 20184.

300 million, compared with -2 in 2017.

40,000 yuan (with asset impairment), investment income increased by +6.

700 million.

In 2018, Santos completed the acquisition of Quadrant Energy, and its output is expected to further increase in 2019.

In 2018, Santos achieved an output of 58.

9 million barrels of oil equivalent (-1%) and sales of 79.

20,000 barrels of oil equivalent (-5%), with an average oil price of 75.

$ 1 / barrel (+ 30%).

The engineering company relies on Xinao Group and its performance is guaranteed.

In 2018, SHKP achieved revenue 31.

900 million, previously + 14%, achieving net profit3.

900 million a year + 17%.

SHKP Energy expects 3.7 billion in connected transaction revenue in 2019, + 3% per year.

Relying on Xinao Group’s natural gas infrastructure businesses in Zhoushan LNG receiving stations, natural gas pipelines, peak shaving energy storage stations and ubiquitous energy grids, we expect Xindi Energy’s 2019 performance to rise steadily.

Coal profit is slightly lowered, agricultural and veterinary medicine assets will be split, and exchange losses will weigh on performance.

In 2018, the company’s self-produced coal gross profit9.

7 ‰, at least -0.

50,000 yuan, slightly lower earnings.

The self-produced coal sales volume in 2018 is estimated to be 641. The company plans to produce 650 tons of self-produced coal in 2019, and we expect the coal sector to be stable in 2019.

In 2018, agricultural and veterinary medicine assets made about 1 profit.

0 billion, +0 a year.300 million, the asset has been announced divestiture, the company will strategically focus on the development of natural gas upstream assets.

The three expenses increased rapidly in 2018, and the selling expenses increased by zero.

400 million, management expenses increased by 0.

900 million, R & D expenses increased by 0.

900 million, financial expenses increased by 2.

0 billion.

The increase in sales expenses, management expenses and R & D expenses was mainly due to business expansion, construction of new projects and acquisition of intermediary fees.

The significant increase in financial costs was due to exchange losses caused by changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar2.


The planned light assets quickly grasped the 220 injection of LNG resources and the conversion of Xinao Group’s natural gas upstream platform.

The company intends to acquire 2.2 million North American LNG resources and quickly cut into the North American LNG business with light assets. The acquisition has not yet been completed.

This move reflects the company’s optimism about the profitability of US natural gas exports to the Asian region in the medium and long term, as well as the expectation of synergy with the natural gas midstream and downstream business of Xinao Group.

The company’s interest in the upstream of natural gas continues to increase, and the height of its upstream platform in the natural gas territory of Xinao Group is already very clear.

In 2016, the company acquired a 10% stake in Australia’s oil and gas upstream Santos, obtained approximately 6 million barrels / year of oil and gas rights, and entered the natural gas upstream mining sector. In 2018, it successfully commissioned another 200 million cubic meters of coal-to-gas projects, and industrialization demonstrations are underway., Cut into the LNG trading business, plans to acquire 220-inch LNG resources in North America.

Xinao Group is a domestic private natural gas giant. The downstream sector of Xinao Energy sells nearly 20 billion cubic meters of gas annually. The first phase of the Zhoushan LNG receiving station has been completed and put into operation at a distance of 300 years. The long-term plan is 1,000 years.The listing platform has broad development space.

Revise down earnings forecast, maintain “Buy” rating and maintain target price of 13.

9 yuan.

Based on the sluggish methanol prices in Q1 2019, we lower our EPS to 1 in 2019-2020.

24 yuan and 1.

37 yuan (was 1).

26 yuan and 1.

39 yuan), plus 2021 EPS is 1.

43 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 10/9/8 times.

We maintain our “Buy” rating and target price based on our optimistic outlook for the company ‘s natural gas upstream business potential and the upward movement of the overall market assessment.

9 yuan.

Risks suggest that coal prices and methanol prices are going down; LNG trading business acquisitions fail and operations 杭州夜网论坛 fall short of expectations.