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Tsingtao Brewery (600600) Third Quarterly Report Review: Structural Upgrade Trend Continues to Improve Profitability
Tsingtao Brewery achieved operating income of 248 in the first three quarters.97 ppm, +5 for ten years.31%; net profit attributable to mother 25.86 million yuan, +23 a year.13%; earnings per share 1.91 yuan.The company’s Q3 single quarter achieved operating income of 83.460,000 yuan, at least -1.66%; net profit attributable to mother 9.55 ppm, +19 for ten years.70%. Business analysis Q3 volume reduced by 5.9%, the price increased by 4.5%, the trend of structural upgrade is not reduced: the company’s Q3 achieved beer sales of 246.50,000 kiloliters, a decline of 5 per year.9%; Qingdao’s main brand sold 117.10,000 kiloliters, at least -2.4%, while other brands, mainly low-end, sold 129.40,000 kiloliters, previously -8.9%; the highest overall sales are mainly affected by weather factors and poor sales performance in the base camp Shandong area, mid-to-high-end products are firm and low-end products are obvious substitutes.The beer price per ton of Q3 was 3386 yuan / liter, surpassing the increase of 4.5%; the ton price in the first three quarters will be 3460 yuan / liter, and will increase by 5 in the future.2%, the trend of structural upgrade remains unabated. The gross profit margin increased steadily, and the improvement of quality and efficiency came out quarter by quarter: the company achieved a gross profit margin of 40 in Q3.34%, ten years +1.31pct, driven by a combination of structural upgrades, easing cost pressures, and expected reductions.The company’s Q3 sales and management expense ratios were 16 respectively.12% and 3.68%; sales expense ratio increased by 0 in ten years.84pct, which is expected to be mainly affected by the decline in the scale effect in a single quarter and the increase in the logistics expense rate; the management expense rate has decreased by 0 every year.25pct, quality improvement and efficiency are still being promoted. The profitability has been continuously improved, and the net interest rate has reached a new high: the company did not accrue asset impairment losses in Q3. It is expected that the overall operation of the subsidiary will be better, and the company’s overall operation will be optimized.Driven by the improvement of gross profit margin + optimization of management efficiency + reduction of impairment compensation, the company achieved net profit attributable to its mother in Q39.55 ppm, +19 for ten years.70%, corresponding to a net interest rate of 11.4%, ten years +1.4pct, ring than +1.9pct, reached a historical high, profitability increased, and profits continued to be released. Profit improvement is still not over, and the reform is expected to be implemented: Although the company’s sales volume is under pressure in the short term, the first three quarters of the transition are the same as the same period of last year, and it is expected that it will gradually be a layout of value-added and parity.As the leader of domestically produced high-end beer, the company’s brand influence continues 苏州夜网论坛 to increase. In the long run, the structural upgrade will drive the ton price upward, and increasing the cost allocation efficiency will substantially promote the company’s quality growth.The implementation of the company’s equity incentive has been put on the agenda, and it is expected that it will effectively promote the enthusiasm for transformation and help the company continue to strengthen competition in the beer industry through reform. Earnings forecast We expect the company’s revenue for 2019-2021 to be 282.3 ppm / 296.3 ppm / 310.0 ppm, a six-year increase of 6.2/5.0% / 4.6%; net profit attributable to mothers is 17.7 ppm / 21.2 ppm / 24.60,000 yuan, an annual increase of 24.2% / 20.2% / 15.6%; EPS are 1.31 yuan / 1.57 yuan / 1.82 yuan; corresponding PE is 37X / 30X / 26X, maintaining the “buy” level. Risk reminder: the risk of closing the plant to suppress profits, the risk of rising raw material prices, and the risk of increased competition