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Lier Chemical (002258): The decline in glufosinate price affects the profit in the first half of the year. The Guang’an project steadily promotes long-term growth and is guaranteed.

In the first half of the year, revenue increased by ten years.

7%, net profit attributable to mother for each extension of 38.

8%.

In the first half of 2019, the company achieved total operating income of 20.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 12 in ten years.

7%; net profit attributable to mother is 1.

6 ‰, 38 years ago.

8%.

Gross profit margin for the first half of the year was 29.

21% twice a year.

86 units; management expense ratio 5.

16%, a decline of 3 per year.

83 units; financial expense ratio 2.

44%, up 2 every year.

The 07 singles were mainly due to the increase in discounted interest and exchange losses.

The core product market is fiercely competitive, and the profit potential of the original drug is improving.

From a single product perspective, pesticide raw materials revenue in the first half of the year13.

500 million, accounting for 65 of total revenue.

59%, an annual increase of 9.

49%, gross margin is 30.

68%, a decline of 5 per year.

16 single; pesticide preparations and other income 5.

08 million yuan, accounting for 24 of the total revenue.

76%, basically flat for one year, gross margin is 30.

09%, an increase of 6 per year.

77 units.

Due to the intensified market competition of the company’s core products, product prices fell. At the same time, due to the increase in operating costs of the Guang’an base and the rise in prices of some raw materials, the company’s main product profit contribution rate declined.

The latest price of glufosinate 10.

4 million / ton.

The average price of glufosinate in the first half of 2019 was 14.

80,000 yuan / ton, compared with 19 in the same period last year.

5 million / ton sulfurized by 24% in 2019.

8.

9-2019.

8.

15 glufosinate offer 11.

2-11.

6 million / ton, the actual transaction was 10.40,000 yuan / ton, which is about 30% lower than the average price in the first half of 2019.

According to Baichuan Information, the prices of upstream synthetic ammonia, methanol, and yellow phosphorus are interchangeable, and the cost support for glufosinate is limited. In addition, entering the off-season, the downstream enthusiasm for purchasing is limited, and the inquiry is light.

Steady progress has been made in raising new investment.

Among them, the glufosinamide formaldehyde plant has been running continuously since it was put into trial production at the end of last year and is expected to be officially put into operation in October 2019; the propynefluramine plant resumed production in May 2019; the annual output of 1,000 tons of fluoxazole project is expected to be May 2020Put into production; in addition, the company started the construction of 15,000 tons / year of methyl phosphorus dichloride, phosphorus-containing flame retardant, L-glyphosate production line and supporting projects, of which 15,000 tons / year of methyl phosphorus dichloride project has begun construction.
The company continues to speed up the development of new products, new technology small and pilot tests, and applied for 22 invention patents in the first half of the year to provide momentum for long-term growth.

Profit forecast and investment rating.

We expect the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 to be 4 respectively.

1.3 billion, 5.

4.9 billion, 6.

67 trillion, corresponding to EPS can reach 0.

79 yuan, 1.

05 yuan and 1.

27 yuan.

The company’s glufosinamide formaldehyde project is expected to be put into production in October 2019, and concentrated production capacity will be released in 2020. The 天津夜网 epoxiconazole project is expected to be put into operation in May 2020. It is expected that the profit growth in the next two years will remain above 20%, and the performance growth rate is high, soCertain estimated premium.

Give the company 15-19 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 11.

85-15.

01 yuan (corresponding to PB in 2019 is 1.

79-2.

27 times), maintaining the sustainable market rating.

Risk warning: product price fluctuation risk; safety and environmental protection risk; project put into production is not as expected.